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2006年08月14日

ルールNo.1投資法



 フィル・タウン著「ルールNo.1投資法」を読む。内容は平易でわかりやすい。

4つのM
1) Meaning
2) Moat(堀)
3) Management(経営者)
4) Margin of Safety(安全域)
のある企業を探せ。

Big Fiveが10%以上
1) ROIC(投下資本利益率)= 税引後営業利益(NOPAT)/(純資産+負債)
2) 純資産伸び率
3) EPS伸び率
4) 売上高伸び率
5) キャッシュ伸び率

具体的な株価の計算法はメアリー・バフェットの「バフェットの銘柄選択術」とほぼ同じ。

 今後10年のEPS成長率を過去の純資産伸び率・EPS伸び率から推定し、10年後のEPSを予測。10年後の予想EPSに予想PER(成長率の約2倍)をかけて10年後の予想株価を推測。期待収益率を15%に設定すると現在の株価は「72の法則」で5年毎に倍になるべきなので、現在の株の定価(≒本質価値:intrinsic value)は10年後の予想株価の4分の1。50%の安全域をとるとさらにその半額で買うべき。

 フィル・タウンは、他のミリオネアから株式投資の基本を教えてもらったと言っているので、「バフェットの銘柄選択術」とほぼ同じ計算方法を用いていることを考えると、株式投資で財をなした米国のミリオネアたちはこの程度の計算はたぶん暗算でできるようになっているものと思われる。
posted by 寺間 寧(てらま やすし) at 21:43| Comment(19) | TrackBack(0) | 読書 | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする
この記事へのコメント
ルールNO.1投資法は良書だと思いますが、いかんせんスクリーニングの方法が難しいですよね。ROIC10年10%なんてどうやって求めたらよいのでしょう?
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